Lions Snap Counts, Starter quality Defensive Tackle edition.

Today I would like to take a closer look at snap counts for the DT position from last year and compare it to expectations for the coming season. According to sporingcharts.com Detroit played 1,045 snaps on defense last year meaning there were roughly 2090 DT snaps last season. Suh played 852 of those snaps, fairley played 287, C.J. Mosley played 489 and Andre Fluellen played 158 snaps for a total of 1786 of 2090 snaps (85%). None of those players play for the Lions anymore but there is still time for the Lions to bring back Mosley and Fluellen. That still leaves a gaping hole in the middle of our defensive line to the tune of 1139 (55%) starter quality defensive snaps and talent lost with the departure of Suh and Fairley.
I choose to not include Mosley's numbers into this starter DT quality snaps total because without injury, his snaps would have been much lower and Fairley's snaps would have been much higher. How are we to know where the sweet spot really is? So, talking the actual number of Starter DT quality snaps seemed the fair way to handle the count. This is not to say Mosley didn't play well for us and give us stater DT quality snaps. He did but that discussion is for another place and time.

To stem some of the starter quality defensive snap count bleeding the Lions traded for Haloti Ngata who played 529 snaps last year for the Ravens. I have read many articles that project Ngata to be able to play around 700 snaps for the Lions next year and I find that careless projection at best, wishful thinking at worst. Ngata hasn't played a full season since 2011. By this line of thinking we would also have to extrapolate Fairley's snaps closer to a full season of production and I find that line of thinking sloppy in relation to each players relatively recent injury history. That said, there is no question the Lions are going to have to lean on Ngata. He is the only guy we have in the middle with any sort of proven pedigree and they are going to get every dime of the 8 million they are paying him out of his body with the hope he doesn't break down before season's end. So perhaps a middle ground between his real snaps last year and those 700 snap projections would be the more realistic place to end for him. That would give the Lions around 600 DT snaps from Ngata next season.Those projected 600 Starter quality snaps from Ngata would provide about 53% of the 1139 starter quality DT snaps lost from the departure of Suh and Fairley last year leaving us roughly 539 starter quality DT snaps waiting to be filled by someone.

This is where Tyrunn Walker comes into the Equation. He played 303 snaps about 19 per game last year. There is no doubt the Lions will be looking to increase his work load this coming year but by how much? What can realistically be expected without hurting his Starter quality DT production? And will his snaps even be worthy of calling them Starter DT quality snaps? Lets take a look at each of these questions.

"There is no doubt the Lions will be looking to increase his work load this coming year but by how much?"

• I have read articles that suggest that around 500 snaps from Walker would be within reason. That would be a 65% increase in his snaps from last season or an increase of just under 19 to over 31 snaps a game. That seems like a stretch to me but one can never be sure. How we use him in the early preseason and early weeks of the season will tell us a lot about how much the Lions really intend to use him. 
• Increased work loads effect different players differently. We likely won't know how an increase in snap count effects him until late in the season, unless he ends up getting hurt early. (Please Football Gods, show some mercy)

 "What can realistically be expected without hurting his Starter quality DT production?"

• This is another area riddled with unknowns. Walker had quality games against Pitt and Tampa last year where his work load was higher than his season average and he played well in those games. That gives people hope that he can stay productive with an increased role. I do not believe two games out of 16 are suggestive enough to warrant that type of hope.
•  During those two games where he had an increased work load, he had 1/2 a sack, 3 tackles and 1 assist.

 "And will his snaps even be worthy of calling them Starter DT quality snaps?"

• Again, another area riddled with unknowns.Much like the previous question, this one is answered by projection and hope. He has started one game in his three year career. As a team, our Lions are reaching blindly here because they have no choice.Cap space, draft pick and backup player limitations forced the lions hand.

Simply put, expecting him to come here and become a viable starter that puts up 500ish starter quality snaps at the DT position really is asking an absolute ton of the kid. I have no doubt he is relishing the idea of a break out contract year and crazier things have happened but that just doesn't seem all that likely.

In summary, it appears the Lions have cobbled together an idea of how they are going to replace their Starter quality DT snaps. The real problem for the Lions and every one of us Lions fans; those snaps wont be taken by guys with anywhere near the talent level of the guys that took them last season.

(edit; correcting horrible grammar.)