It is exceptionally rare for a franchise tagged player to become a free agent. There is always a reason when it does happen. Teams don't let franchise players hit the open market unless he carries a risk that overwhelms his value to the team. In this case, we have a player that thinks he is a top 5 CB in the league and expect to be paid in accordance. The problem, he isn't. One year of exceptional play in a contract year doesn't equate to elite pay.
It really is that simple. He has had one exceptional year. Never the less, some team will overpay him. Some team will pay him way too much money for way too many years.
Let that team not be the Lions!
I'm surprised you even entertained this one as if it's a real possibility lol. He's not coming here...why would he want to & why would Quin make such a move when everything he's done this offseason speaks to a total team building philosophy & flies directly in the face of ridiculous "superstar" grabs for attention & the quick fix.
ReplyDeleteI never considered it a legitimate possibility. I just wanted to be clear about how I felt about him and his potential, or lack there of, to help our team.
DeleteHe is a good player that is looking to be paid like a superstar. So pass.
I could have written those two lines and would have said nothing different.
5 years and 75 million with reportedly 50 million guaranteed. That is the reported deal the redskins gave him. couple things...
ReplyDelete1) Snyder continues to show he is utterly clueless on how to be a winning NFL owner. How many "studs" has he spent obscene money on that just don't work out? Skins fans deserve better.
2) that 50 million guaranteed. That is not the real guaranteed number. The best CBs generally get around 50-55% of their deal guaranteed. It is typical for Agents to over report how much guaranteed money a deal includes because no one ever comes back and checks the real numbers later. I would expect the real guaranteed money to be in the 35-40 range. If I am right, that is a 20-30% exaggeration.
Yeah, Dan Snyder pretty much came to mind immediately as well. The lesson clearly hasn't been learned. I have to wonder though, is the mindset of a NFC East team maybe a little different than that of a team building in our division or most others? I mean seriously, look at those teams. They say the best way to the playoffs is to win your division, hence you build to beat divisional opponents. Taking that Redskins roster & adding Norman to it maybe doesn't scare anyone in any other division but he could honestly put them in a position to claim another division title.....maybe even with a winning record this time!!! Your second point is pretty interesting, I've never actually heard of that but don't doubt it occurs. Any specific instances you can think of where it's happened in the past?
Delete1) But even then, I don't see winning your division to be anything more than a ticket to the dance. If you are still a bad dancer, you will be exposed. The skins weren't a player away. No team truly is one player away. I am loathe say say it but I am worried about Cousins the starter in year two. Far too often teams buy into the hype of a first year starting QB's hype (see:RGme) and in year two try to add too much to their plates. This results in catastrophic performances and the crushing the said QBs confidence, something that is extremely difficult to regain. I hope for cousins the skins are ready to keep his progress slow and not try to lean on him too much. I really do, I just don't believe they will do it and this extreme signing suggests to me they are not ready to let him develop properly.
Delete2) Contract exaggeration happens all the time and the agents are the ones doing it. Olivier Vernon was initially reported to have signed a 5 year 85 million contract with 52.5 million guaranteed with the giants. In truth it was a 5 year 85 million deal with 40 million guaranteed with nothing guaranteed after the first two seasons leaving the Giants the ability to cut him after the second year with only 4 million in dead money if they use a post june 1st designation. The 12.5 million difference is likely smaller amounts in years 3 to 5 that are guaranteed only for injury. Thus, it is not guaranteed and the player is extremely unlikely to ever see that "guaranteed" money. True guaranteed money and "guaranteed money" are two entirely different things in the NFL. Usually, it is the money earned in years 1 to 3 that is the true value of a NFL contract.
It looks like the real guaranteed money for Norman is about 36.5 million. I am still waiting on the exact details to see how both sides ended up but early reports suggest it is a pretty even deal for the player and team.
DeleteI am not sure why but this contract stuff has always interested me. The nuance and the tools an agent and or a team will use to set up a final deal. It just intrigues me. Like the Russel Okung deal. First reported to be this huge deal, ended up being a one year 5 million dollar deal with 4 optional years following with nothing guaranteed. An absurdly team friendly deal. If okung had an agent s/he would have never allowed him to sign that contract.
Oh, I completely agree about the Redskins but I guess they don't. I'd also point to the fact that the team with the most SB wins this decade was a flawed Giants team that backed it's way into the playoffs twice. I think the Patriots have had some very flawed teams as well & they get to the big game more than anyone. Point being, if you can make it to the dance, you may not be anyone's favorite to win but you are by definition a contender. Years like last season where both number 1 seeds make the SB isn't really the norm.
DeleteI have to say, I'm not really a fan of Kirk Cousins. I think last year's playoff game against GB exposed a lot of the things that have plagued him early in his career. He makes UGLY mistakes. He throws interceptions sometimes where you have to question if he has any clue what's happening on the field. Blind ducks, late & across the middle of the field. He had a fumble where he didn't see a guy coming from his front side in that game, again highlighting a complete lack of awareness. He just has some very disturbing, reoccurring issues with that. I see the league adjusting to his tendencies & giving him a much harder time as well.
Thanks for the examples on the contracts, I've never really mut much thought into that aspect of the business to be honest. I think it's very interesting.
When Detroit finds a Bilichick or Caughlin, I will believe getting to the dance gives us a chance. In my lifetime, we have never had a guy like that. Fontes was the closest. Caldwell is NOT that guy. In fact, I see Caldwell as the antithesis of that guy.
DeleteOn Cousins, I see the same things as you. I have hope for him. He has fight and fire in him and I can always appreciate that. Maybe with time, he can learn to tame those errors just a little. It really wouldn't take much to make a rather large difference. That said, regression back to the mean seems the most probable result for him and that means his int's percentage per pass will again rise beyond starter QB NFL numbers. Prior to last year, his int percentage per pass was almost double the average NFL starter. Not good news for him or the skins.
I started getting into the salary cap and contracts about 10 years ago. The amount of time agents and players put into trying to squeeze every penny from each other, leverage use on both sides, the incredible amount of money flowing. I have always been a numbers guy, but these numbers added in with egos and goals of both sides just makes those numbers even more interesting to me.
Btw, I'll be working on some post for the draft next week. Maybe some things on the selections, how they may fit with the team, things of that nature.
ReplyDeletelooking forward too it. :D
Deleteinteresting on the Okung deal as it reminds me some of the team friendly deal that Colin Kaepernik signed as yearly team options and he was somewhat ripped for it, but now it looks like it actually protected his money some.
ReplyDelete