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Thursday, April 28, 2016

Three predictions for the 2016 NFL Draft

So the draft is finally upon us Lions fans. I thought this would be a great time to do something interesting here at the site.  By interesting, I don't mean adding to the several billion mock drafts currently making the rounds on the internet.  Rather let's have a go at some predictions for the upcoming draft. If I'm half as good as the national experts, this should be a total failure...but why let a thing like accountability get in our way.


1. Four Quarterbacks will be selected in the first round.

We already know Jared Goff and Carson Wentz will go off the board in the first two picks.  There has been some criticism of the Los Angeles Rams & Philadelphia Eagles for their recent trades to move into the first and second picks of this draft respectively. While there is validity in those criticisms, the fact remains.  Quarterback is the most important position in the game and the most difficult position to fill. This creates quite the inflated market for young passers in each draft. I don't believe the buck stops with the top two players this year. I'd look for two more young passers to find their way into the event's opening night. Paxton Lynch out of Memphis is almost a certainty after wowing evaluators and the media alike with his combination of size, athleticism and throwing ability.

 The fourth is a bit more tricky. There are a couple options to look for among the remaining passers. MSU QB Connor Cook has had an up and down draft process seeing many fluctuations in his stock but he remains a valued target for some teams that like his intelligence and what is seen as a pro ready game. Another guy I would look for is PSU QB Christian Hackenberg. No longer the shining, sure fire number 1 pick he was once seen as, questions of character and regression in play over the course of his collegiate career have marred the image of Hackenberg. However, two words will ultimately define him....ARM. TALENT. That's where he shines brighter than any other QB prospect and those two words could see him land in the 1st round. It'll be interesting to see where they go, if teams begin a trading frenzy and if so, how it affects the Lions if at all.

2. The Detroit Lions go OL in round 1....but not tackle

This is about as close as I'll come to a mock draft folks. I feel illness setting in simply typing the words. That said, I'm making predictions and I'm told this type of thing is done elsewhere. So let's get it out of the way shall we? The Detroit Lions like any other team come into the draft with a list of positions they would like to fill/upgrade. Most notable among pundits and Lions fans everywhere are the holes at right tackle and defensive tackle. Let's touch on those quickly. Starting with DT, there's a strong belief that the Lions should take aim at finally finding a replacement for Ndamukong $uh *AHEM* Suh. I'm not exactly a subscriber to that belief. The moves Lions GM Bob Quinn made this offseason suggest he may also not believe that theory. With the re-signing of Haloti Ngata, Tyrunn Walker and the addition of Stefan Charles to a group that already plays home to young players like Caraun Reid and Gabe Wright, needless to say...the position has quite a few roster spots occupied. It just doesn't seem as if it's the setup of a team looking to go DT in round 1.

Then there's the issue of right tackle. I say right tackle because if you think any rookie taken at pick 16(or possibly anywhere else) could come in and take Riley Rieff's job at LT...you're a bit out of touch with how tough the college to NFL transition can be. There are few positions where rookies can step in immediately and have a big impact...one of those positions however, is center. Full disclosure, I'm not in love with Travis Swanson. He has plenty question marks on him ranging from his functional strength to his durability. I don't know about you but I'm not keen on having a question mark squatting in front of the franchise. Alabama C Ryan Kelly has been gaining steam in recent weeks and it's even been reported by Bleacher Report's Matt Miller (Get your grains of salt ready) that Kelly is the Lions top target. You may not believe BR, but believe the tape...Kelly is good and I believe he will be a part of the pride before night's end.

3. The Detroit Lions will make 3 trades...and 2 of them won't be in the direction you want.

Can you hear them? TRADE DOWN....TRADE DOWN! Shaking their heads in self approval. That's what the New England Patriots would do and that's what Bob Quinn will do. No...stop it....control yourselves. The New England Patriots' philosophy is not to trade down, their philosophy is to do their homework, follow their board and get good players no matter where they present themselves.  I'm looking for Quinn to bring that mentality to the Detroit Lions but he's stated he's not interested in a copy/paste philosophy. I anticipate some aggressiveness from our new GM. I think we could see it in days 2 and 3 of this year's draft.  We as Lions fans may not know a whole lot about it but the thought process is that good players can be had in all rounds of the draft.

Coming into Thursday night the team will have a lot of draft capital to work with boasting 10 selections. Something major to note, the Cleveland Browns currently hold the Lions original 3rd round pick via the blockbuster trade with Philadelphia. As you, I and Roger Clemens may like to misremember...that selection was traded to the Eagles during last year's draft in exchange for a 4th round pick that turned into Gabe Wright. Although, we remain in the 3rd round with a compensatory pick, it's a long way from pick 46 in the 2nd round to pick 95 towards the end of round 3. This is a spot where we could potentially see one of the three predicted trades but I believe it's a lot more likely to see Quinn maneuver the board on day 3. It will be exciting to see how active the team is and who they target.








4 comments:

  1. How about 5 QBs in the first round? Denver needs one because Elway is so incredibly arrogant that he thinks players should play for him for considerably less than they can get in other places.

    I love the idea of upgrading the O line and have always wondered why center wasn't a higher priority for teams. This guy is the QB of your O line. Why wouldn't that be a priority? The better your Center, the less your QB has to do pre-snap. How is that not a good thing? How is that not highly valuable? Particularly with these weaker QBs coming out of college that are clueless how to run an NFL style offense.

    I do not want the Lions trading up. Keep those picks and find gems later in the draft. If we ever want to be a real contender and not a part time wanna be pretender, we need to hit on some mid to late round picks. We need guys like Sherman.....

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    1. agree, need to hit on late and mid round picks

      i wonder if we see oline (center and guards) become more valued in the draft as the teams need better players , guys with higher ceilings, more athletic, because they are adjusting to less practice time... so you need the quality guys that can come in and make and impact and gel quickly or risk losing your franchise QB, or your starting QB, and we know the drop to second string, without the reps, is precarious at best.

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    2. I STRONGLY considered 5 QBs. But I think NFL teams are beginning to be smarter in terms of not over drafting QBs. Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, the names are beginning to pile up of guys slipping into the 2nd or later and finding success(of varying degrees). I think Hackenberg or Cook make it into round 1(my guess is Hackenberg) but the some QB needy team possibly trades back rather than forcing the issue.

      Here's the thing with trading down. The who point of it is not necessarily to make more selections. The point is to have more draft capital. It puts your team in a position where you can maneuver throughout the course of the event. Look at the Rams. They're on the clock right now and after they take their QB, they're screwed till day 3. They have no way to put themselves in positions for other players they like on their board. What I'm predicting is not another Gabe Wright type deal. I'm suggesting they use the 10 picks they already own to get up and down the board most likely on day 3.

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  2. Damn bro, we haven't gotten shit right yet.

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